MATCHIQ

Match Analysis: Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

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Matchday Group Stage - 1Sunday, 14 June 2026 at 23:00
CIV — #2
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
1-0
Full time
vs
Ecuador
ECU — #3
Ecuador
Form — last 5
----W
Form — last 5
----L
Current group table

Group E standings

#TeamPGDPts
1Germany1+63
2Ivory Coast1+13
3Ecuador1-10
4Curaçao1-60
Context inputs to the model

Match conditions

Weather
Philadelphia, PA, USA
Temp
29°C
Humidity
49%
Wind
19 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
12m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
Ivory CoastNo prior match
EcuadorNo prior match
xG form
Ivory Coast0.73 for / 0.54 against(last 1)
Ecuador0.54 for / 0.73 against(last 1)
FIFA ranking
Ivory CoastIvory Coast#331541 pts
EcuadorEcuador#231599 pts
How each side tends to play

Team style — last 1 match

Ivory CoastvsEcuador
  • 0.73xG for0.54
  • 45%Possession %55%
  • 6.0Shots6.0
  • 1.0Shots on target0.0
  • 2.0Corners0.0
  • 8.0Fouls3.0
Injuries & suspensions

Team news

No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions

Match events

  • S. Fofana
    Yellow
    28'
  • F. Kessie
    Yellow
    38'
  • G. Doue
    Yellow
    40'
  • 56'
    A. Minda OFF, N. Angulo ON
  • E. Wahi OFF, A. Bonny ON
    56'
  • B. Toure OFF, A. Diallo ON
    56'
  • 62'
    J. Yeboah OFF, A. Preciado ON
  • 62'
    A. Franco OFF, J. Porozo ON
  • 73'
    J. Porozo
    Yellow
  • N. Pepe OFF, C. Inao Oulai ON
    77'
  • S. Fofana OFF, I. Sangare ON
    77'
  • 77'
    E. Valencia OFF, K. Rodriguez ON
  • G. Doue OFF, O. Kossounou ON
    89'
  • ⚽
    A. Diallo (assist: W. Singo)
    90'
AI prediction report

Analyst verdict

AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Ecuador1-2
ModelCIV 28%·D 32%·40% ECU
Market · 10Bet31%·D 33%·36%
Model confidence48%
Key factors
  • Ecuador holds a meaningful FIFA ranking advantage (#23 vs #33, ~58 pts gap), a reliable predictor of match outcomes especially when H2H history is absent
  • Both teams have exactly one prior match in this group stage with identical stats (Ivory Coast W 1-0, Ecuador L 0-1) — the form data appears to be a mirror of the same game, so provides limited independent signal
  • Market odds lean toward Ecuador (36.3% implied win probability vs 30.9% for Ivory Coast), consistent with the FIFA ranking gap and warranting respect as a well-calibrated baseline
  • Temperature of 29.4°C with 49% humidity in Philadelphia creates moderate heat stress — both squads are likely unaccustomed to early-summer heat, but West African players (Ivory Coast) may have a slight edge in heat tolerance
  • No H2H history exists between these sides, removing any psychological or stylistic pattern to factor in; Ecuador's higher possession (55%) suggests tactical control tendency, though their 0 shots on target in available data tempers confidence in their attacking output
Analyst reasoning

Ecuador's FIFA ranking advantage (~58 points) is the clearest differentiating signal in this matchup, supporting the market's mild lean toward an away win. With no H2H history, limited meaningful form data (which appears derived from the same fixture), and no injury information, the ranking gap and market odds are the most reliable anchors — both pointing modestly toward Ecuador. The match is expected to be competitive and close, with Ivory Coast capable of a result but Ecuador holding the edge in underlying quality.