MATCHIQ

Match Analysis: Sweden vs Tunisia

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Matchday Group Stage - 1Monday, 15 June 2026 at 02:00
SWE — #1
Sweden
Sweden
5-1
Full time
vs
Tunisia
TUN — #4
Tunisia
Form — last 5
----W
Form — last 5
----L
Current group table

Group F standings

#TeamPGDPts
1Sweden1+43
2Japan101
3Netherlands101
4Tunisia1-40
Context inputs to the model

Match conditions

Weather
Monterrey, Mexico
Temp
29°C
Humidity
70%
Wind
10 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
538m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
SwedenNo prior match
TunisiaNo prior match
xG form
Sweden1.26 for / 0.20 against(last 1)
Tunisia0.20 for / 1.26 against(last 1)
FIFA ranking
SwedenSweden#381510 pts
TunisiaTunisia#451476 pts
How each side tends to play

Team style — last 1 match

SwedenvsTunisia
  • 1.26xG for0.20
  • 49%Possession %51%
  • 13.0Shots6.0
  • 7.0Shots on target2.0
  • 4.0Corners2.0
  • 10.0Fouls8.0
Injuries & suspensions

Team news

No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions

Match events

  • ⚽
    Y. Ayari
    7'
  • ⚽
    A. Isak (assist: V. Gyokeres)
    30'
  • 43'
    ⚽
    O. Rekik (assist: H. Mejbri)
  • 54'
    R. Khedira
    Yellow
  • ⚽
    V. Gyokeres (assist: A. Isak)
    59'
  • G. Gudmundsson OFF, E. Stroud ON
    65'
  • B. Nygren OFF, L. Bergvall ON
    65'
  • 72'
    E. Saad OFF, S. Tounekti ON
  • 72'
    Y. Valery OFF, M. Belhadj ON
  • 72'
    E. Skhiri OFF, E. Achouri ON
  • 83'
    R. Khedira OFF, I. Gharbi ON
  • 83'
    A. Slimane OFF, F. Chaouat ON
  • J. Karlstrom OFF, M. Svanberg ON
    84'
  • ⚽
    M. Svanberg (assist: A. Isak)
    84'
  • A. Isak OFF, A. Elanga ON
    90+1'
  • A. Bernhardsson OFF, D. Svensson ON
    90+1'
  • ⚽
    Y. Ayari (assist: L. Bergvall)
    90+6'
AI prediction report

Analyst verdict

AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Sweden2-0
ModelSWE 52%·D 27%·21% TUN
Market · 10Bet49%·D 28%·22%
Model confidence58%
Key factors
  • Sweden lead Group F with 3 points and a +4 goal difference after one game; Tunisia sit bottom with 0 points and -4 GD, indicating a clear quality gap in early tournament performance
  • Sweden's recent form shows a dominant 5-1 win with xG of 1.26 for vs 0.2 against, while Tunisia's mirror-image figures (0.2 xG for, 1.26 against) suggest genuine underlying weakness, not just bad luck
  • Sweden generate far more attacking threat on average: 13 shots (7 on target) vs Tunisia's 6 shots (2 on target), reflecting a real stylistic dominance in chance creation
  • Sweden hold a slight FIFA ranking advantage (#38 vs #45, ~33 points), consistent with being a moderately stronger side, and no H2H history exists to complicate this signal
  • High heat (28.9°C) and 70% humidity in Monterrey could affect both sides equally, but Tunisia's lower shot volume and defensive fragility may compound under physically demanding conditions
Analyst reasoning

Sweden enter this match with clear momentum — a convincing opening win, strong xG numbers, and superior shot creation metrics — while Tunisia's opening defeat and weak underlying stats suggest genuine vulnerability rather than misfortune. The market already leans Sweden as modest favorites, and the combination of standings, xG differentials, and shot volume supports a slight upward nudge in Sweden's win probability. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Sweden's attacking efficiency and Tunisia's likely defensive caution in a must-not-lose scenario.