MATCHIQ

Match Analysis: Netherlands vs Japan

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Matchday Group Stage - 1Sunday, 14 June 2026 at 20:00
NED — #3
Netherlands
Netherlands
2-2
Full time
vs
Japan
JPN — #2
Japan
Form — last 5
----D
Form — last 5
----D
Current group table

Group F standings

#TeamPGDPts
1Sweden1+43
2Japan101
3Netherlands101
4Tunisia1-40
Context inputs to the model

Match conditions

Weather
Arlington, TX, USA
Temp
29°C
Humidity
73%
Wind
18 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
184m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
NetherlandsNo prior match
JapanNo prior match
xG form
Netherlands0.70 for / 0.54 against(last 1)
Japan0.54 for / 0.70 against(last 1)
FIFA ranking
NetherlandsNetherlands#81754 pts
JapanJapan#181662 pts
How each side tends to play

Team style — last 1 match

NetherlandsvsJapan
  • 0.70xG for0.54
  • 59%Possession %41%
  • 10.0Shots10.0
  • 6.0Shots on target3.0
  • 5.0Corners4.0
  • 7.0Fouls7.0
Injuries & suspensions

Team news

No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions

Match events

  • ⚽
    V. van Dijk (assist: R. Gravenberch)
    51'
  • 57'
    ⚽
    K. Nakamura (assist: T. Kubo)
  • C. Summerville
    Yellow
    61'
  • ⚽
    C. Summerville (assist: R. Gravenberch)
    64'
  • 66'
    D. Maeda OFF, J. Ito ON
  • D. Malen OFF, M. Depay ON
    70'
  • C. Summerville OFF, T. Koopmeiners ON
    70'
  • T. Reijnders OFF, Q. Timber ON
    70'
  • 75'
    T. Watanabe OFF, T. Tomiyasu ON
  • 75'
    T. Kubo OFF, K. Ogawa ON
  • 75'
    R. Doan OFF, Y. Sugawara ON
  • R. Gravenberch OFF, N. Ake ON
    81'
  • M. Depay
    Yellow
    83'
  • 84'
    A. Ueda OFF, K. Shiogai ON
  • C. Gakpo OFF, B. Brobbey ON
    85'
  • 88'
    ⚽
    D. Kamada (assist: K. Ogawa)
  • M. van de Ven
    Yellow
    90+1'
AI prediction report

Analyst verdict

AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Netherlands2-1
ModelNED 46%·D 27%·27% JPN
Market · 10Bet46%·D 27%·27%
Model confidence52%
Key factors
  • Netherlands hold a meaningful FIFA ranking advantage (#8 vs #18, ~92 points), which is a strong baseline predictor of match outcome
  • Netherlands' playing style (59% possession, 6 shots on target vs Japan's 3) suggests greater control and attacking output, though both teams had similar xG in their last match (which was the same draw against each other)
  • The form data and standings reflect a single shared match (the opening group game ended in a draw), so current form provides limited additional signal beyond the draw result itself
  • High heat (29.2°C) and humidity (73%) in Arlington, TX could test stamina in the second half — Japan's compact, high-energy pressing style may be more affected by these conditions than Netherlands' possession-based approach
  • Limited H2H history (one available meeting, Netherlands 1-0 in 2010) offers minimal pattern signal, but Netherlands have never lost to Japan in competitive play; market odds are well-calibrated and used as the primary baseline
Analyst reasoning

Netherlands' superior FIFA ranking and dominant possession/shot-on-target profile point to a slight quality edge over Japan, and the market odds (46% home win) reflect this advantage appropriately. The opening match draw between these two sides (inferred from identical standings/form data) already factors into group dynamics, and Netherlands' ability to control the ball should be better suited to the fatiguing heat and humidity conditions in Arlington. With no injury data and minimal H2H history, the FIFA ranking gap and stylistic advantage are the primary differentiators, supporting a narrow Netherlands win.