Match Analysis: Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit
← Back to fixturesMatchday Relegation Round - 5Friday, 15 May 2026 at 13:00
Form — last 5
DDWLW
Form — last 5
LDLLD
Current group table
Group National League , Relegation Round standings
| # | Team | P | Form | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 37 | WLDWW | +8 | 51 |
| 2 |  Hapoel Ra'anana | 37 | DWDDW | -2 | 50 |
| 3 |  Hapoel Afula | 37 | DDWLW | -19 | 45 |
| 4 |  Kafr Qasim | 37 | WDDDL | -7 | 41 |
| 5 |  Hapoel Acre | 37 | LLWDD | -8 | 40 |
| 6 |  Ironi Modi'in | 37 | LWLWL | -10 | 40 |
| 7 |  Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 37 | LDLLD | -14 | 37 |
| 8 |  Hapoel Hadera | 37 | WDDDL | -21 | 32 |
Injuries & suspensions
Team news
No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
AI prediction report
Analyst verdict
AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Draw1-1
ModelHAP 22%·D 34%·44% HAP
Model confidence48%
Key factors
- Hapoel Afula have not beaten Hapoel Nazareth Illit in 9 consecutive meetings, with their last win dating back to October 2022 — a strong long-term pattern suggesting a psychological or stylistic mismatch
- Hapoel Nazareth Illit won the most recent H2H meeting convincingly (3-1 on 14 April 2026), indicating they carry momentum into this fixture
- Hapoel Afula's current form shows a balanced scoring average (1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded), suggesting they can find the net but are also vulnerable defensively
- Hapoel Nazareth Illit's poor defensive record in recent games (1.8 conceded per game) gives Afula a realistic chance of scoring at home, tempering the away side's dominance
- Relegation round context adds pressure to both sides, which often produces cautious, tightly contested matches — increasing the likelihood of a draw or narrow result
Analyst reasoning
The long-term H2H record heavily favors Hapoel Nazareth Illit, who have gone unbeaten in 9 straight meetings and won the most recent clash convincingly, making them the more likely result-getter even away from home. However, Nazareth Illit's recent defensive vulnerabilities (1.8 goals conceded per game) and the high-stakes relegation context suggest Afula can threaten, making a narrow away win or draw the most probable outcome. A 1-1 draw is selected as the predicted score, reflecting both teams' scoring patterns and the competitive tension of a relegation round fixture.