Match Analysis: Brazil vs Haiti
← Back to fixturesMatchday Group Stage - 2Saturday, 20 June 2026 at 00:30Lincoln Financial Field
Form — last 5
DWWWL
Form — last 5
--LLL
Current group table
Group C standings
| # | Team | P | Form | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brazil | 5 | DWWWL | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  Morocco | 5 | DWWWL | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 3 | --WLL | -3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Haiti | 3 | --LLL | -6 | 0 |
Context inputs to the model
Match conditions
Weather
Philadelphia, PA, USA
Temp
26°C
Humidity
30%
Wind
12 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
12m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
Brazil6d rest~137 km
Haiti6d rest~408 km
xG form
Brazil1.24 for / 1.28 against(last 1)
Haiti1.21 for / 1.07 against(last 1)
FIFA ranking
Brazil#61766 pts
Haiti#831293 ptsSquad fatigue
Brazil2135min · 26pHaiti1171min · 20pAvg club-season minutes across players with data.
How each side tends to play
Team style — last 1 match
BrazilvsHaiti
- 1.24xG for1.21
- 54%Possession %54%
- 12.0Shots15.0
- 4.0Shots on target2.0
- 5.0Corners4.0
- 15.0Fouls23.0
Injuries & suspensions
Team news
No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions
Match events
- 4'C. ArcusYellow
- ⚽M. Cunha23'
- ⚽M. Cunha (assist: Vinicius Junior)36'
- Raphinha OFF, Rayan ON40'
- ⚽Vinicius Junior (assist: Lucas Paqueta)45+3'
- 45+4'F. PierrotYellow
- 46'C. Arcus OFF, D. Simon ON
- 46'F. Pierrot OFF, W. Isidor ON
- 62'J. Casimir OFF, L. Deedson ON
- Lucas Paqueta OFF, G. Martinelli ON64'
- M. Cunha OFF, Endrick ON64'
- Douglas SantosYellow65'
- 71'R. Providence OFF, L. Joseph ON
- 72'D. Jean JacquesYellow
- Vinicius Junior OFF, Danilo Santos ON81'
- Bruno Guimaraes OFF, Ederson ON81'
- 81'J. Bellegarde OFF, D. Etienne ON
AI prediction report
Analyst verdict
AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Brazil3-0
ModelBRA 84%·D 11%·5% HAI
Market · 14-book avg87%·D 9%·4%
Stats Model · Poisson (xG)37%·D 27%·36%
Model confidence78%
(3-run ensemble average)
Key factors
- Massive FIFA ranking gap: Brazil #6 (1765 pts) vs Haiti #83 (1293 pts) — a 472-point differential that is one of the strongest single predictors of match outcomes and clearly favors Brazil
- Historical H2H emphatically supports Brazil dominance: the only recent meeting ended 7-1 to Brazil, reflecting a genuine and enduring quality chasm between these sides
- Statistical model divergence is explained by tiny sample size (1-game xG each) — Haiti's xG of 1.21 is almost certainly an overestimate against a top-6 world side; their 2/15 shots-on-target ratio suggests very poor chance quality
- Haiti's aggressive/disruptive style (23 fouls/game, 0 pts, must-win pressure) may leave them tactically exposed at the back as they are forced to chase the game
- Market consensus of 86.6% across 14 bookmakers is a strong signal — deviation from the statistical model is warranted given its unreliable 1-match sample; Brazil's superior squad depth, rest advantage (137km vs 408km travel), and comfortable weather conditions all reinforce the home-win verdict
Analyst reasoning
Brazil's commanding FIFA ranking advantage, the emphatic 7-1 H2H result, and Haiti's visibly poor shot quality (2 of 15 on target) all point decisively to a Brazilian victory. The statistical model's near-coin-flip output is driven by a single match of xG data and should be heavily discounted in favour of the well-calibrated 14-bookmaker market consensus. Haiti's must-win desperation and high foul rate may generate some intensity but is more likely to result in cards and counter-attack exposure than a genuine result against a side of Brazil's calibre.