MATCHIQ

Match Analysis: Iraq vs Norway

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Matchday Group Stage - 1Tuesday, 16 June 2026 at 22:00
IRQ — #4
Iraq
Iraq
1-4
Full time
vs
Norway
NOR — #2
Norway
Form — last 5
--LLL
Form — last 5
WWLWW
Current group table

Group I standings

#TeamPGDPts
1France6+1418
2Norway5+312
3Senegal3+23
4Iraq3-110
Context inputs to the model

Match conditions

Weather
Foxborough, MA, USA
Temp
24°C
Humidity
31%
Wind
12 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
56m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
IraqNo prior match
NorwayNo prior match
FIFA ranking
IraqIraq#571446 pts
NorwayNorway#311557 pts
Squad fatigue
IraqIraq1072min · 17p
NorwayNorway1991min · 26p
Avg club-season minutes across players with data.
Injuries & suspensions

Team news

No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions

Match events

  • 29'
    ⚽
    E. Haaland (assist: D. Wolfe)
  • ⚽
    A. Hussein (assist: A. Al Ammari)
    39'
  • 43'
    ⚽
    E. Haaland
  • Z. Ismaeel OFF, Z. Iqbal ON
    59'
  • A. Al Hamadi OFF, M. Farji ON
    59'
  • 73'
    A. Nusa OFF, A. Schjelderup ON
  • 73'
    F. Aursnes OFF, K. Thorstvedt ON
  • 73'
    D. Wolfe OFF, L. Ostigard ON
  • 73'
    A. Sorloth OFF, O. Bobb ON
  • H. Ali OFF, M. Saadoon ON
    73'
  • A. Jasim OFF, A. Qasem ON
    73'
  • 76'
    ⚽
    L. Ostigard (assist: M. Odegaard)
  • I. Bayesh OFF, Meme ON
    78'
  • 81'
    M. Odegaard OFF, P. Berg ON
  • Z. TahseenYellow
    86'
  • 90+6'
    ⚽
    A. HusseinOwn goal
AI prediction report

Analyst verdict

AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Norway0-2
ModelIRQ 9%·D 17%·74% NOR
Market · 14-book avg7%·D 15%·78%
Model confidence62%
(3-run ensemble average)
Key factors
  • FIFA ranking gap is substantial: Norway rank #31 (1557 pts) vs Iraq #57 (1446 pts) — a 26-place, 111-point difference that is one of the strongest predictors of match outcome and heavily favors Norway.
  • Market consensus is overwhelmingly pro-Norway at ~78% implied win probability across 14 bookmakers — a very strong and well-calibrated signal with no specific counter-information available to justify meaningful deviation.
  • No head-to-head history exists between these sides, so there is no H2H pattern to moderate the quality gap; the FIFA ranking differential stands as the primary quality signal.
  • Squad fatigue metrics lean toward Iraq being fresher (1072 avg club-season minutes vs Norway's 1991 across 26 players), but this is a minor factor and unlikely to bridge a ranking gap of this magnitude — though it may slightly tighten the margin.
  • Weather conditions (24°C, low humidity, light wind) are benign and broadly neutral — no climate-based adjustment needed, and no injuries/suspensions reported to alter the expected quality picture.
Analyst reasoning

Norway hold a clear and meaningful quality advantage over Iraq based on FIFA ranking (31st vs 57th, 111-point gap), and the 14-bookmaker market strongly corroborates this with a ~78% Norway win probability. No H2H history, no key absences, and pleasant weather conditions provide no basis to override this consensus — Iraq's lower squad fatigue is noted but is a minor factor that may trim the margin without changing the directional outcome. A 0-2 Norway win reflects their likely dominance while acknowledging Iraq's potential defensive discipline in a tournament opener.