MATCHIQ

Match Analysis: Netherlands vs Sweden

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Matchday Group Stage - 2Saturday, 20 June 2026 at 17:00
NED — #1
Netherlands
Netherlands
5-1
Full time
vs
Sweden
SWE — #3
Sweden
Form — last 5
--DWW
Form — last 5
-WLDL
Current group table

Group F standings

#TeamPGDPts
1Netherlands3+67
2Japan4+35
3Sweden4-34
4Tunisia3-100
Context inputs to the model

Match conditions

Weather
Houston, TX, USA
Temp
32°C
Humidity
70%
Wind
12 km/h
Rain
0 mm
Altitude
13m
Sea-level to moderate elevation — no notable altitude impact.
Rest & travel
Netherlands6d rest~376 km
Sweden6d rest~652 km1h tz shift
xG form
Netherlands0.70 for / 0.54 against(last 1)
Sweden1.26 for / 0.20 against(last 1)
FIFA ranking
NetherlandsNetherlands#81754 pts
SwedenSweden#381510 pts
Squad fatigue
NetherlandsNetherlands2083min · 26p
SwedenSweden1850min · 26p
Avg club-season minutes across players with data.
How each side tends to play

Team style — last 1 match

NetherlandsvsSweden
  • 0.70xG for1.26
  • 59%Possession %49%
  • 10.0Shots13.0
  • 6.0Shots on target7.0
  • 5.0Corners4.0
  • 7.0Fouls10.0
Injuries & suspensions

Team news

No injuries or suspensions reported for this fixture.
Timeline — goals, cards & substitutions

Match events

  • ⚽
    B. Brobbey (assist: C. Gakpo)
    5'
  • ⚽
    B. Brobbey (assist: D. Dumfries)
    17'
  • D. Malen OFF, C. Summerville ON
    46'
  • ⚽
    C. Gakpo (assist: D. Dumfries)
    47'
  • 53'
    G. GudmundssonYellow
  • ⚽
    C. Gakpo (assist: C. Summerville)
    54'
  • 55'
    A. Bernhardsson OFF, A. Elanga ON
  • 56'
    J. Karlstrom OFF, B. Zeneli ON
  • 56'
    B. Nygren OFF, L. Bergvall ON
  • 59'
    ⚽
    A. Elanga (assist: A. Isak)
  • F. de Jong OFF, T. Koopmeiners ON
    59'
  • T. Reijnders OFF, G. Til ON
    59'
  • B. Brobbey OFF, M. Depay ON
    72'
  • 75'
    Y. AyariYellow
  • 79'
    Y. Ayari OFF, T. Ali ON
  • 80'
    L. BergvallYellow
  • ⚽
    C. Summerville (assist: M. Depay)
    89'
  • C. Gakpo OFF, N. Lang ON
    90'
  • 90+3'
    G. Gudmundsson OFF, E. Stroud ON
AI prediction report

Analyst verdict

AI Prediction Report
Generated —
Predicted result
Draw1-1
ModelNED 42%·D 32%·26% SWE
Market · 14-book avg55%·D 25%·21%
Stats Model · Poisson (xG)19%·D 37%·44%
Model confidence44%
(3-run ensemble average)
Key factors
  • Netherlands hold a massive FIFA ranking advantage (#8 vs #38, 244 pts gap) reflecting genuine long-term quality superiority — the strongest single structural factor in Netherlands' favor
  • Sweden's xG (1.26 for / 0.20 against) and dominant form (+4 GD) in their only match substantially outperform Netherlands' underwhelming xG (0.7 for / 0.54 against) in a draw — statistical model projects Sweden as slight favorites
  • Odds movement of -3.4 pts away from Netherlands since markets opened is a meaningful signal, potentially reflecting squad news or internal assessments not yet captured in structured data
  • High heat (31.8°C, 70% humidity) favors Sweden's physical/direct style (13 shots, high fouls, lower possession) over Netherlands' technical possession-based approach — conditions can narrow the quality gap
  • Statistical model's 37.1% draw probability and market's 24.9% both suggest a draw is live — the wide divergence between market (NED 54.5%) and model (NED 19.4%) reflects genuine uncertainty; draw balances Netherlands' class ceiling against Sweden's sharper recent form
Analyst reasoning

Netherlands' substantial FIFA ranking advantage (#8 vs #38) and H2H record establish them as the structural favorites, but their sole form data — a draw with only 0.7 xG — is concerning against Sweden's sharp 1.26 xG performance and +4 goal difference. The combination of Sweden's in-tournament momentum, conditions favoring their physical style, and meaningful odds drift away from Netherlands makes a draw the most defensible prediction, with Netherlands' class preventing a Sweden win verdict despite the statistical model projecting them as slight favorites.