Despite both clubs sharing the same recent form sequence, Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a clear quality edge reflected in their superior scoring returns and long-term dominance in this derby. Hapoel's low attacking output (0.8 goals/game) and leaky defense make it difficult to back them against a Maccabi side that has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and already defeated Hapoel just three weeks ago. A narrow Maccabi away win is the most probable outcome, consistent with both the historical pattern and the current form metrics.