France's elite squad quality — among the world's best — against a mid-tier Iraq side represents one of the clearest mismatches in the tournament, and the FIFA ranking gap of over 400 points provides strong structural justification for the heavy home favoritism. With no injuries, no prior H2H record, and no form data to complicate the picture, the market's 85.6% implied probability is well-grounded and this analysis broadly concurs. The slight humidity and heat could temper France's margin if they rotate or manage the game, but a comfortable French victory is the overwhelmingly likely outcome.